In-depth: The Champions League reaches the conclusion of the group stages this week, with all four English sides still with so much to play for. After last season's knockout farrago, could it all go wrong again for the Premier League sides?
This week sees the final round of group games in the Champions
League, with three English clubs among those European contenders still
desperately trying to secure their place in the knockout stages of
football’s biggest club competition.
After the disappointment of last season – where no Premier
League contender made it beyond the last-16 – it had been hoped that
this season would see an improvement, not least to ensure England
maintained its UEFA co-efficient advantage over Italy and continued to
ensure four qualification spots for the event in seasons to come.
However, poor form and inconsistent results have left Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United still fighting for their survival in the competition - while Manchester City
still have much work to do if they want to clinch top spot in their
group (and, potentially, an easier route to the quarter-finals).
It promises to be a stressful few days for fans of the English
clubs involved - so we take a look at what they all need to do to reach
the last-16, and what exactly their chances are of managing it.
MANCHESTER CITY
As it stands: The shining light in a sea of
English mediocrity, City are actually already qualified for the knockout
stages – huzzah! But there is still the small matter of top spot to be
played for…
What they need to do: Second in Group D at the moment, two points behind Juventus,
they need to beat Borussia Monchengladbach at home and hope Sevilla can
pull off a similar trick against the Old Lady in order to go through as
group winners.
How it could all go wrong: City win against the Germans, but a late Paul Pogba
strike gives Juventus an equaliser at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan – and
with it top spot on head-to-head record. City then draw Barcelona in the
last-16 all over again, as Messi, Suarez et al send them packing from the competition along with a big ole' serving of deja vu.
Prognosis: Decent. Inconsistent as City have
been this season, they beat Gladbach away and should do so again at the
Etihad. That then asks Sevilla to beat Juve in front of their home fans –
winning will get the Spaniards back in the Europa League (a competition
they have won the last two seasons), so they certainly have the
incentive, and they are never an easy side to visit.
Manchester United's Jesse Lingard looks dejected after missing a chance to score - Reuters
MANCHESTER UNITED
As it stands: Second in Group B, United squandered a glorious chance to book their place in the knockout rounds with a 0-0 draw at home to PSV Eindhoven on Matchday 5.
What they need to do: Louis van Gaal’s side
simply need to match PSV’s result to progress – the Dutch side are at
home to CSKA, however, so it should be anticipated they will get at
least something from the match. If United beat Wolfsburg in Germany they are through whatever happens, but a draw then relies on PSV not beating CSKA.
How it could all go wrong: Wolfsburg lost at
home for the first time in 29 matches at the weekend, so will be looking
to bounce back and re-establish their fortress. Winning against an
another abject United display puts them through as group winners, while a
draw for PSV would see them safely past United on head-to-head record
(they won 2-1 in Holland before the stalemate at Old Trafford). United
would fall into the Europa League and rival fans would laugh at them for
months.
Prognosis: Not great, you would have to say.
Considering United have struggled so badly to score a goal recently you
would have to assume they won’t win at Wolfsburg without some sort of
good fortune in front of goal – so they may be relying on CSKA. The
Russians have a Europa League spot to play for, but have been poor in
Europe this season and seem unlikely to bail Van Gaal out.
ARSENAL
As it stands: Third in Group F, the Gunners are three points behind Olympiacos – their opponents on the final matchday.
What they need to do: For Arsene Wenger’s
side it is simple – they need to beat Olympiacos, and by a two-goal
margin, to guarantee their progression. If they win by the same one-goal
margin that Olympiacos enjoyed at the Emirates, then the tiebreaker
will be away goals – on that occasion the Greek side won 3-2, so a 2-1
or 1-0 win will not be good enough for the Gunners, but a 4-3 or bigger
result will do the trick. If it is 3-2 again between the two sides then
the tiebreaker goes to goal difference from the entire group stage –
which Arsenal will win.
How it could all go wrong: Let me count the
ways. Arsenal could be winning 2-0, but a late consolation goal from an
Olympiacos forward could send them out in the most frustrating manner of
all. To the Europa League it would be, and the same jibes from opposing
Premier League fans that United will be putting up with. Sorry, may be putting up with.
Prognosis: This one is a complete toss-up. On
the face of it a 2-0 win should be comfortably within Arsenal’s grasp,
but the spate of injuries that has decimated Wenger’s squad makes it
difficult to see where their attacking inspiration is going to come
from.
Chelsea's English defender John Terry (C) reacts as he leaves the pitch - AFP
CHELSEA
As it stands: Top of Group G (on head-to-head from Porto), Jose Mourinho’s side are two points clear of Dynamo Kiev in one of the competition's tighter races.
What they need to do: A win over Porto at
Stamford Bridge will get the job done. A draw against Porto will also
get the job done (just). A defeat, however, opens up the possibility of
Kiev overhauling the Blues – assuming they beat Maccabi Tel-Aviv at
home. For what it’s worth, Maccabi have yet to pick up a point in the
group stage.
How it could all go wrong: Kiev are
guaranteed to progress as long as they win their game … and, while
stranger things have happened, it is probably safe to assume they will.
That leaves the Chelsea-Porto match as a straight shootout, although
only a Chelsea defeat will send the Blues out. But if that happens it's
another English side into the Europa League ... and possibly a P45 for
Jose Mourinho?
Prognosis: Reasonable. Porto may not have
lost in the league this season, but Chelsea have a 100 per cent record
at home in the Champions League and have been less prone to utter
collapse than they have domestically. With this Chelsea side at the
moment, though, who knows?
Arsenal's Alexis Sanchez celebrates scoring his side's second goal v Dinamo Zagreb - PA Photos
OUR VIEW
It is not inconceivable that three of England’s four
participants crash out of the Champions League at the group stage – a
collective display of inadequacy unmatched in the modern format of the
competition. That's right: this would be the first time that fewer than
two English sides made the last-16 under the single group stage format,
which was introduced in 2003-04.
Realistically, however, one would have to assume that at least
one of Arsenal and Chelsea will progress from their do-or-die decider,
while even United’s perilous situation is boosted by the fact that
results elsewhere have to go against them for them to be eliminated. It
would certainly be a very Van Gaal situation if United were to lose and
scrape through because PSV could not win themselves.
In terms of co-efficients, there is perhaps less cause for concern. Italy remain the nearest threat, yet Lazio
failed to reach the group stage entirely while Roma are not guaranteed
to join Juventus in the knockout stages. England's four places are also
under no more threat than Germany's - and, while Bayern Munich remain imperious, Gladbach are out, Bayer Leverkusen
look poised to join them (they and Roma cannot both progress, and
indeed both could go out) and it remains to be seen how far Wolfsburg go
in the competition. All in all it should be at least another season
before Serie A is ready to leapfrog either country.
So that's one positive English fans can take. Even if things do go horribly wrong over the next couple of days.
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